Georgetown Americas Institute

Following an unprecedented surge in globalization post-WWII, notably accelerating from the mid-1980s until the 2008 financial crisis (referred to as 'hyper-globalization'), a subsequent period of 'slowbalization' emerged. The aftermath of the financial crisis witnessed a series of shocks, including US-China trade disputes, Brexit, COVID-19, and conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. These events have fundamentally altered the dynamics of globalization, sparking discussions about a new era of 'de-globalization'. The repercussions of these shocks are evident in the disruptions of global value chains (GVCs) worldwide and the potential for their reorganization. Governments are reacting to these trends by recalibrating their international and domestic economic policies, leading to a rise in protectionism and the resurgence of industrial policies. This policy brief aims to better understand the defining features of the potential reorganization of GVCs, focusing on the main drivers of value chain disruption, including technology, sustainability, and geopolitics. It identifies specific channels through which the three drivers can impact the overall structure of GVCs. Additionally, by developing a set of policy recommendations, the brief assesses several future scenarios of potential shifts in GVCs.