Rompiendo el ciclo de bajo crecimiento y violencia en América Latina
El 6 de febrero de 2025, el Instituto de las Américas de Georgetown recibió a Rodrigo Valdés, del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), y a Joyce Wong, del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), para explorar el ciclo de bajo crecimiento económico y creciente violencia en América Latina. La conversación, moderada por Alejandro Werner, Director Fundador del GAI, se centró en una nueva investigación del BID y el FMI que examina la relación entre la delincuencia, la inseguridad y el estancamiento económico en la región.
Economic Policies and Security Reform
Valdés discussed strategies policymakers can use to break the connection between low growth and violence. He highlighted the significance of sound economic policies that promote stability, maintain low inflation, and encourage inclusive economic growth. By combating inequality and expanding access to education and employment opportunities, governments can help mitigate the root causes of crime. Financial authorities also play a critical role by targeting illicit markets, curbing money laundering, and cutting off the financial flows that sustain organized crime.
Wong raised the challenge of allocating social spending during economic crises. She pointed to her recent work in Jamaica, noting how, during the country's economic struggles, the IMF included citizen security measures within the structural reforms to prevent young people from turning to crime due to lack of opportunity, and to ensure they remained engaged through access to education, jobs, and community support. However, she acknowledged that fiscal space becomes limited when the macroeconomy falters, and difficult choices must be made.
The conversation also touched on the effectiveness of targeted interventions. Valdés specified success stories from the region, such as the case of Rosario, Argentina, where a comprehensive strategy to combat crime—including territorial control by the federal police, anti-mafia legislation, and juvenile justice reforms—led to a 65% reduction in homicides in just 11 months. Similarly, in Honduras, security reforms resulted in an 8% increase in public confidence in law enforcement and a 14% reduction in homicide rates.
Valdés remarked that macroeconomic policies can help mitigate crime's overall impact, but targeted strategies are needed to make a difference at the local level. He argued that while increased police presence can help reduce crime, poorly managed security spending may simply displace criminal activity to other areas. Valdés also mentioned the need for better allocation of public spending, particularly in areas like education and health, to address the root causes of crime.
As the session continued, Werner underscored the importance of regional cooperation in combating transnational crime and the need for integrated strategies, including strengthening institutions, monitoring financial flows, and protecting vulnerable populations. Valdés followed by mentioning the need to gather more data on the economic costs of crime and to work closely with other countries to develop comprehensive solutions to break the cycle of violence and low growth. Werner pointed out that while Latin America has made progress in anti-money laundering efforts, a more coordinated approach is necessary to address the complexity of organized crime.
During the Q&A session, attendees asked about the relationship between political cycles and crime rates and the potential impact of foreign aid on crime levels. Valdés responded that while political cycles can influence crime, solving these challenges requires collaboration across sectors, including the private sector, government, and civil society. He also commented on the importance of convincing policymakers to prioritize crime prevention within broader economic strategies.
