Arturo Sarukhan on the Upcoming Elections and the Future of U.S.-Mexico Relations
On April 10, the Georgetown Americas Institute (GAI) hosted a conversation with Arturo Sarukhan, former ambassador of Mexico to the United States, to discuss the shared challenges and dynamics that connect upcoming presidential elections in the United States and Mexico.
Over the past three decades, the United States and Mexico have become deeply interconnected, demographically, economically, politically and they share similar security challenges. Yet, over the past six years the relationship has been marked by increased disagreements and points of tension. The upcoming 2024 presidential elections in both countries have the potential to reshape the bilateral relationship across key issues including trade, security cooperation, and immigration policy. To discuss the future of this relationship, GAI hosted Arturo Sarukhan, former ambassador of Mexico to the United States from 2007 to 2013.
A Government Victory in the Elections?
Ambassador Sarukhan began his presentation by explaining that, although he expects the margins in the polls to continue to shrink, the most likely outcome is that president Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) chosen successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, will inevitably come on top in Mexico's June 2 presidential elections. AMLO is vested in ensuring that his party will retain the presidency, and Morena – the president’s party – may even gain further influence in Congress.
“This will be a free election, but it will not be a fair one. It will be a regurgitation of the old system when elections under a hegemonic Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in the twentieth century saw the resources and institutions of the state used for the official candidate’s benefit.” -Arturo Sarukhan
For Sarukhan, the issue is not whether Sheinbaum will win or lose, but rather, what the concurrent congressional elections may mean in the balance of power between her and her predecessor. Paradoxically, Sheinbaum may actually be empowered to pursue a more moderate agenda if Morena fails to gain full control of an absolute majority of congress. Such a balance of power would force her to negotiate with the opposition, limiting AMLO’s ability to push aggressive reforms. President López Obrador has repeatedly attempted to push these reforms in recent years.
“The government has been working tirelessly to undermine the National Electoral Institute, the Supreme Court, and key institutions of the Mexican state. Interestingly, these institutions in fact are what guaranteed his victory back in 2018 by ensuring that there were free and fair elections.” -Arturo Sarukhan
A Potential Sheinbaum Administration and the Future of U.S.–Mexico Relations
As Sarukhan explained, Sheinbaum comes from Mexico’s more traditional foreign policy establishment. She has been more moderate than AMLO making her more appealing to the business community. But perhaps because of AMLO’s influence, Sheinbaum has time and time again pledged to continue his policies. She is on the record, for example, with Bloomberg promising to double down on AMLO’s energy policies – essentially prioritizing energy nationalism by guaranteeing a predominant role for Pemex and the national power generator, Federal Electricity Commission (CFE). This runs contrary to the assumption that she would seek a larger role for renewables in Mexico’s fossil fuel-dominated energy sector. In fact, many of his policies would still be in the implementation phase during Sheinbaum’s presidency. It also means that tensions between the United States and Mexico over AMLO’s energy nationalism may continue well into the future.
Despite the deep economic and social interconnection between both economies, domestic security, and migration drive large sections of the bilateral relationship. For Sarukhan, U.S. policy toward Latin America and Mexico more specifically has become less an element of foreign policy and more immersed in U.S. domestic politics.
“Unfortunately, any Republican electoral strategy these days runs straight through the U.S. southern border. The national security threat assessment that they promote argues that the main risks are not in Eastern Europe or the Taiwan Straits, but rather, they come from the border.” -Arturo Sarukhan
On the potential for conflict under a Republican administration, Sarukhan also expressed his growing concern with the potential for clashes and increased disagreements over security policy.
The event was moderated by author and journalist Michael Reid. Introductory remarks were provided by GAI Founding Director Alejandro Werner. The event was co-hosted with the Latin America and the Caribbean Policy Association (LAPA). A full recording of the event is available on the GAI YouTube channel.