Georgetown Americas Institute

The Evolution of U.S. Security Cooperation in Latin America

Shifter provided historical context on U.S. security engagement in Latin America, focusing on how the United States has approached drug-related violence and organized crime. He explained that U.S. policy in the region has been largely shaped by anti-narcotics strategies, leading to security agreements such as Plan Colombia and the Mérida Initiative.

He noted that while these initiatives helped to strengthen local security forces, they also had unintended consequences. In Colombia, for example, U.S. support helped weaken major guerrilla groups but did not fully dismantle the networks of organized crime that later emerged. In Mexico, U.S. assistance facilitated the militarization of the drug war but failed to curb cartel-related violence, as criminal organizations adapted and diversified their operations.

Camila Zuluaga on Colombia’s Changing Security Priorities

Zuluaga discussed Colombia’s evolving security strategy and the role of U.S. cooperation. She emphasized that while Plan Colombia was effective in weakening the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and other armed groups, it did not resolve deeper structural issues, such as rural inequality and state absence in conflict-prone areas.

She also highlighted the post-peace agreement security challenges that Colombia faces, particularly the fragmentation of armed groups and the rise of new criminal organizations. She argued that current policies need to move beyond military responses and focus on governance, economic development, and social programs to prevent violence from recurring. Zuluaga pointed out that the United States continues to have a significant influence on Colombia’s security agenda, particularly through funding and intelligence-sharing, but argued that future collaboration should prioritize long-term stability rather than short-term military objectives.

Mary Beth Sheridan on Mexico’s Security Challenges and U.S. Relations

Turning to Mexico, Sheridan expanded on the impact of U.S. security assistance and how Mexico’s approach has evolved under different administrations. She explained that the Mérida Initiative initially strengthened Mexico’s ability to confront drug cartels, but its heavy focus on militarization contributed to escalating violence without significantly reducing drug trafficking.

She described how President Andrés Manuel López Obrador shifted the country’s security strategy towards a policy of “hugs, not bullets” that prioritized social programs over aggressive military confrontation with cartels. However, Sheridan commented that this approach has been widely criticized for failing to address the growing power of criminal organizations and the expansion of fentanyl trafficking, which remains a major point of contention between the United States and Mexico.

Sheridan also discussed the tension in U.S.-Mexico cooperation, particularly regarding sovereignty concerns. She explained that while the United States has sought greater collaboration on issues like cartel violence and drug interdiction, Mexico has resisted deeper involvement from U.S. security agencies, preferring a more independent approach.

The Unintended Consequences of U.S. Security Policies

Both panelists addressed the unintended consequences of U.S. security policies in Latin America. Zuluaga noted that in Colombia, Plan Colombia’s military success did not eliminate violence but rather displaced it, leading to the proliferation of new criminal groups. Similarly, Sheridan argued that in Mexico, U.S. anti-narcotics policies often failed to account for the adaptability of cartels, which have expanded their influence into industries such as illegal mining and human trafficking.

Both experts emphasized the need for the United States to rethink its security cooperation strategies, focusing more on institution-building, judicial reforms, and economic development rather than solely military aid.

U.S.-Mexico Trade Relations and USMCA Negotiations

Sheridan spoke on the ongoing U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiations and how security concerns intersect with economic relations. She explained that while the USMCA has brought economic benefits to Mexico, tensions remain between the U.S. administration and López Obrador’s government regarding labor rights, energy policies, and environmental regulations.

She highlighted that the United States has raised concerns about Mexico’s policies favoring state-owned energy companies over foreign investors, which could lead to trade disputes. Additionally, ongoing labor issues—such as ensuring fair wages and working conditions—have been central to U.S. pressure on Mexico under the agreement’s labor provisions.

Sheridan remarked that while security issues are often discussed separately from trade, they are deeply interconnected. A stable security environment is essential for foreign investment, and cartel-related violence has affected certain industries, such as agriculture and manufacturing.

Colombia, Venezuela, and Regional Political Dynamics

Zuluaga also discussed Colombia’s stance on Venezuela and how it has influenced President Gustavo Petro’s political standing both domestically and internationally. She explained that Petro has faced criticism from both the opposition in Colombia and from Venezuelan opposition leaders. Domestically, many Colombians opposed to Petro’s government believe he has not done enough to address security challenges and economic concerns. Simultaneously, Venezuelan opposition figures have criticized him for not explicitly condemning Nicolás Maduro’s regime.

She outlined how Petro has taken a more diplomatic approach to Venezuela, advocating for dialogue rather than outright condemnation. However, this position has alienated some groups in Colombia who believe he should take a stronger stance against Maduro’s government, and that Trump’s administration has not addressed the controversy regarding Maduro’s electoral fraud scandal. 

 “This is a huge message to the region that really the United States is not concerned about protecting democracy and they say right now this is not what we want to be our role in LATAM”-Camila Zuluaga.

Adding to the discussion on regional stability, Alejandro Werner addressed broader concerns about the global economic outlook and its potential impact on Latin America. He highlighted the risks of a major economic crisis, pointing to the world’s increasing reliance on the U.S. economy as Europe faces stagnation and China’s growth slows. Werner emphasized that with high debt levels in advanced economies and uncertainty in global trade, there is a significant possibility of negative economic shocks that could trigger inflationary pressures. He also noted that the United State’s  Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates beyond market expectations, which could have profound consequences for emerging economies, including Latin America. Ultimately, Werner warned that a world characterized by high debt, low growth, and a single-engine global economy presents a vulnerable and precarious situation for Latin America and beyond.

Key Takeaways from the Q&A Session

During the Q&A session, Werner asked about the future of U.S. involvement in Latin American security. Zuluaga stressed that while U.S. support remains important, Colombia must take the lead in crafting security policies that address the root causes of violence, such as inequality and weak state presence in rural areas.

Sheridan responded to questions about U.S.-Mexico relations, noting that one of the biggest challenges moving forward is the growing presence of fentanyl in the drug trade. She highlighted that while U.S. officials have pushed for stronger Mexican action against fentanyl production and trafficking, Mexico’s government has been reluctant to fully cooperate, creating friction between the two countries.

Shifter concluded the discussion by emphasizing that long-term solutions to security challenges in Colombia and Mexico require a comprehensive approach that goes beyond law enforcement. He argued that while U.S. engagement will continue to be relevant, sustainable progress ultimately depends on local leadership, governance reforms, and socioeconomic investment. Shifter concluded the session by reiterating that any lasting solutions to the security crises in Colombia and Mexico would require a more nuanced approach, one that goes beyond military interventions and addresses the root causes of violence, such as poverty, inequality, and lack of access to education.