In this conversation, Guerrero called for a North American security treaty between the United States, Canada, and Mexico as the region faces diverse threats to democracy and prosperity. Alejandro Werner, founding director of the Georgetown Americas Institute, moderated the discussion.
Transnational crime and the trafficking of drugs, people, and illegal weapons are challenges that demand deeper security policy cooperation between North American countries. Promoting investment in Mexico's police force and reducing the impact of crime on citizens, institutions, and infrastructure are also key concerns, which Guerrero noted could be addressed through a regional security treaty.
Security Challenges and Criminal Violence in Mexico
Guerrero provided an overview of Mexico's challenging security situation, its evolution, and the role played by organized crime. He described the situation as a growing epidemic of criminal violence, starting in 2008 with a spiral of homicides triggered by cartel activities. Guerrero pointed out that over the last 15 years, the government has been unable to contain violence and protect citizens.
“In the early 2000s, Mexico’s criminal actors were concentrated in some specific municipalities. We did not face a generalized problem with homicides and extortion, unlike what we see now.” - Eduardo Guerrero
He described the evolution of criminal activity starting in 2006, when Mexico had six regional cartels operating relatively discreetly as they sought to maintain a lower profile compared to modern criminal organizations.
Today, two major criminal coalitions dominate the country: the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco Cartel, alongside a network of 64 regional mafias and hundreds of local gangs. Guerrero argued that these organizations have diversified their activities, getting involved in extortion, theft of natural resources, human trafficking, and political influence.
The Status of Cross-national Cooperation
Guerrero argued that security cooperation between Mexico, the United States, and Canada is fundamental to address the broad array of security challenges posed by cartel activity and mass migration. However, he expressed frustration that cooperation has been inconsistent and limited in its efficacy.
“We’ve had cooperation experiences in some states, such as Baja California and Tamaulipas collaborating directly with the Texas government, but at the federal level collaboration has been weak.” - Eduardo Guerrero
While there has been successful collaboration in intelligence sharing and joint law enforcement operations, Guerrero believes these efforts have been hindered by factors such as mistrust, political tensions, and differing priorities.
The current diplomatic climate is not favorable for deeper cooperation ties, mostly due to broader regional issues like migration. Recent events, such as the arrest of a former Mexican defense secretary in the United States for alleged drug trafficking links, have further strained diplomatic relations and underscored the need for improved communication and trust-building measures between the three nations.
A North American Security Treaty
Given the increasing complexity and reach of organized crime in Mexico, Guerrero believes that a comprehensive response involving closer cooperation with the United States and Canada is required.
To overcome these obstacles and enhance cooperation, Guerrero argued that all three countries must prioritize dialogue, transparency, and mutual respect. Establishing clear channels of communication, fostering a spirit of cooperation at all levels of government, and addressing underlying issues that affect bilateral relations are essential steps.
“The first step towards North American integration was the free trade agreements. A second step should be built over security concerns.” - Eduardo Guerrero
Additionally, Guerrero argued that the security treaty should promote investment in joint training programs, capacity-building initiatives, and technology-sharing agreements, which would strengthen members’ collective ability to combat transnational threats.
By fostering a collaborative and proactive approach to security cooperation, Mexico, the United States, and Canada can work together more effectively to address shared challenges and promote stability and prosperity in the region.
Challenges and Next Steps
When questioned about the feasibility of such an ambitious endeavor, Guerrero highlighted how previous free trade treaties involving Mexico were constructed in just under six years. If backed by similarly strong political will, a potential security treaty could be developed in the near future. He revealed that Lantia Consultores is actively mapping existing legal mechanisms and older security cooperation proposals that could strengthen the case for a formal North American security treaty.
Guerrero concluded with a call to action, asking attendees to engage with the North American security treaty project and participate in upcoming expert discussion rounds that seek to materialize this groundbreaking initiative.
The event was moderated by GAI Founding Director Alejandro Werner.
