Georgetown Americas Institute

Framing a Moment of Structural Transformation

Gonzalez opened by situating the Western Hemisphere within a broader global context marked by geopolitical disruption and economic uncertainty. He argued that the region is no longer peripheral to U.S. foreign policy but increasingly central, as developments in Latin America directly affect domestic political and economic conditions in the United States. He identified three structural shifts shaping this moment: the transition from globalization to a security- and resilience-based framework, the closing of Latin America’s demographic window, and the erosion of boundaries between domestic and foreign policy in U.S. decision-making.

These dynamics, he noted, have intensified the urgency of policy responses across the region, particularly as global instability, including conflict in the Middle East, places additional pressure on economic growth and resource allocation.

The Exercise of U.S. Power in the Hemisphere

Gonzalez outlined three defining characteristics of current U.S. engagement in Latin America. First, security is treated as a permissive condition for cooperation, encompassing migration management, energy security, and supply chain resilience. Second, economic instruments such as tariffs, sanctions, and regulatory tools are deployed as mechanisms of behavioral alignment rather than solely punitive measures. Third, sustained pressure campaigns have become a central policy approach, particularly in Venezuela and Cuba.

In discussing Venezuela, Gonzalez described a scenario of political uncertainty following the removal of Nicolás Maduro, with multiple possible trajectories ranging from democratic transition to continued instability. In Cuba, he emphasized the risks of applying pressure without a clearly articulated strategy for political or economic transition, warning that such approaches may exacerbate fragmentation rather than produce alignment.

From Military to Geoeconomic Competition

A central argument of the event was that influence in the hemisphere is no longer primarily determined by military power but by economic and technological capacity. Gonzalez identified infrastructure, digital systems, and critical minerals as key arenas of competition. In this context, China has established a significant presence in Latin America through long-term investments in ports, energy systems, and supply chains.

Rather than advocating for exclusion, Gonzalez argued that the United States should focus on shaping the rules governing economic engagement. He emphasized that democratic governance remains a comparative advantage for the United States, though its credibility depends on consistency between domestic practice and international advocacy.

Latin America’s Structural Constraints

Gonzalez characterized Latin America as “execution constrained” rather than capital constrained. While investment opportunities exist, the region has struggled to translate them into sustained growth due to weak productivity, institutional limitations, and policy fragmentation. He highlighted low levels of intra-regional trade as a key indicator of structural weakness, noting that Latin American countries trade more with external partners than with one another.

This fragmentation, he argued, reduces the region’s bargaining power in an era of great power competition, where coordinated blocs are better positioned to negotiate favorable terms.

A Strategic Agenda for Regional Integration

To address these challenges, Gonzalez proposed five priority areas for regional action. First, revitalizing trade integration through frameworks similar to the Pacific Alliance, with the aim of creating a broader hemispheric trade bloc. Second, developing coordinated strategies for critical minerals and energy to move beyond commodity export models and increase value-added production. Third, establishing a regional infrastructure governance framework to set standards for transparency, financing, and sustainability. Fourth, harmonizing digital and regulatory systems to enable cross-border economic activity, particularly in financial technologies. Fifth, reframing migration as an economic asset through coordinated labor mobility and credential recognition systems.

Across these recommendations, Gonzalez emphasized that integration must be treated as a central strategic objective rather than a secondary policy goal.

U.S. Policy Constraints and Strategic Competition

In the discussion, Gonzalez addressed the limitations of U.S. policy tools, particularly in middle-income regions like Latin America. While there is bipartisan recognition of strategic competition with China, he noted that the United States lacks sufficiently agile economic instruments to compete effectively. Existing mechanisms, such as development finance institutions, often operate too slowly to match the pace of global capital flows.

He also highlighted the importance of North American coordination, suggesting that Mexico and Canada could increase their leverage in upcoming trade negotiations by aligning their positions more closely.

Political Dynamics in the Region

The conversation also examined the apparent shift toward right-leaning governments in Latin America. Gonzalez suggested that this trend reflects broader voter dissatisfaction with governance outcomes rather than a permanent ideological realignment. The durability of this shift, he argued, will depend on whether current governments can deliver economic growth and institutional stability.

He noted that external actors, including the United States, can influence these dynamics, though such involvement may produce unintended consequences depending on timing and context.

Conclusion

The event underscored that Latin America is navigating a period of heightened geopolitical relevance and internal constraint. While external powers continue to shape regional dynamics, Gonzalez emphasized that the region retains significant, though underutilized, agency. The ability to act collectively through economic and political integration will determine whether Latin America can shape its own development trajectory or remain subject to external forces in an increasingly competitive global environment.