El programa América Latina en la Economía Global (LAGE) del Georgetown Americas Institute es una iniciativa de varios años para avanzar en la investigación y promover el diálogo dentro de la academia y con los gobiernos, el sector privado y la sociedad civil en torno a los desafíos económicos más críticos que enfrenta la región. Un enfoque crítico será la posición emergente de América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) en una nueva arquitectura comercial económica global caracterizada por profundos cambios estructurales.
En 2023 con el apoyo de CAF - Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina, el programa LAGE apoyará un esfuerzo de investigación de un año centrado en las oportunidades sin explotar en las cadenas de valor globales (GVC). La economía global está cambiando, trayendo nuevos desafíos y oportunidades para América Latina y el Caribe (ALC). ALC está saliendo de una crisis de COVID-19 que condujo a una de las recesiones más graves de su historia económica, y la invasión rusa de Ucrania se sumó a la gravedad de la situación. Incluso antes de estos shocks, ya había debate sobre la medida en que la economía mundial se había visto afectada y había entrado en una nueva fase de desglobalización con los gobiernos de todo el mundo reaccionando recalibrando sus estrategias de política comercial y de integración.
En este contexto, existen grandes expectativas en algunos círculos políticos en torno a una posible reorganización de las cadenas globales de valor (CGV) con la relocalización y la relocalización cercana de empleos en el sector manufacturero y de servicios. Impulsada por un vuelo hacia la resiliencia y la oportunidad y los cambios en la tecnología y los costos laborales, todo acelerado por las tensiones comerciales con China, el shock de COVID-19 y la invasión de Ucrania, se espera que esta reorganización permita a la región superar su participación históricamente baja en las cadenas de valor mundiales. Recientemente, las preocupaciones geopolíticas y de seguridad nacional se han agregado al discurso sobre las cadenas de valor mundiales con conceptos como el friendhoring.
Sin embargo, existe una incertidumbre considerable sobre este proceso de reorganización de las cadenas de valor mundiales y sus probables impactos en ALC. Si los países de la región quieren aprovechar las oportunidades creadas por estos cambios, aún necesitan profundizar su integración en los mercados globales y acceder a insumos y tecnologías de clase mundial, además de invertir en infraestructura de alta calidad, logística moderna y prácticas regulatorias sólidas.
Para abordar estas preguntas críticas para ALC, el Georgetown Americas Institute en colaboración con CAF-Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina, ha lanzado un programa de investigación conjunto sobre “Oportunidades desaprovechadas en América Latina en las cadenas globales de valor”. Este programa reunirá a un grupo de expertos de ALC altamente reconocidos para abordar las brechas de conocimiento en la investigación existente y asegurar su relevancia para las discusiones de políticas y estrategias del sector privado. El programa constará de seis estudios, que combinarán diferentes enfoques metodológicos, para brindar una evaluación integral de la participación de ALC en las cadenas de valor mundiales y su potencial y preparación para enfrentar un nuevo entorno político emergente con respecto a la evolución de las cadenas de valor mundiales.
Latin America in the New Geometry of
Global Supply Chains
- Authors: Antoni Estevadeordal, Theodore Kahn, and Alejandro Werner
- This paper assesses Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) preparedness to take advantage of potential shifts in the structure of global value chains (GVC). We start by unpacking and examining the main drivers of change in global trade and investment flows, focusing on technology, sustainability, and geopolitics. In each area, the paper analyzes the likely implications for investment and sourcing decisions in the context of GVCs, identifying several channels through which each broad driver is likely to shape GVCs in the future. This discussion highlights diverse and, in some cases, countervailing impacts on global trade, adding nuance to existing debates over deglobalization or nearshoring. Drawing on this conceptual framework, we develop a new set of preparedness indicators for GVC participation and compare LAC’s performance to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The region lags behind on technology-related indicators but appears to be well positioned to take advantage of sustainability and geopolitical drivers. Read the report here.
Latin America’s Untapped Opportunities in Global Value Chains: The Case of ADD Countries
- Authors: Alberto Trejos, Jorge Cornick
- The COVID-19 pandemic, U.S.-China trade war, and geopolitical tensions have exposed the fragilities of global value chains, leading to discussions of reallocation of operations. This context presents new opportunities for increased and improved GVC participation for Alliance for Development in Democracy (ADD) countries, which are relatively small economies. The study focuses on three ADD countries—Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, and Panama—to explore untapped opportunities for increased participation in GVCs, identify obstacles, and propose practical next steps. The study uses economic complexity logic, expert opinions from multinational corporations and policymakers, and specific proposals to eliminate the identified barriers needed to fully benefit from this unique opportunity. Read the report here.
Nearshoring: Possible Scenarios of Its Size and Impact on Mexico’s Economy
- Authors: Daniel Chiquiar, Martin Tobal
- The paper will examine the events causing a geographic reconfiguration of global value chains, leading to Mexico becoming a potential host of certain production processes that were previously located elsewhere. Combining anecdotal and indirect evidence of nearshoring processes in Mexico with academic review, the article will provide an analytical framework and empirical analysis to identify sectors that could benefit the most from nearshoring decisions and assess the possible effects on sectoral and aggregate output growth. The authors will also propose relevant policy recommendations. A conceptual framework and empirical strategy will be used to analyze theoretical nearshoring opportunities, identifying the possible sectors where there is a larger likelihood of outsourcing activities shifting from China or other Asian countries towards Mexico. Read the report here.
Global Value Chain Reorganization: Are There Opportunities for Brazil?
- Author: José Guilherme Reis
- The paper aims to examine how Brazil can attract investments focused on export-oriented specializations within GVCs and identify policy actions needed for Brazil to be a recipient of GVC-related investments in the near term. The global value chain trade interdependence is being threatened by recent political, health, environmental, and economic disruptions. This has led to concerns about the need for reshoring or relocation of firms and jobs. Brazil, with its large domestic market, green energy matrix, and complex ecosystem of firms, is being considered as a potential location for industrial firms in the context of a fluid GVC architecture. This paper will argue that Brazil's limited openness to trade is a major factor inhibiting its participation in GVCs, but some sectors, such as aerospace and machinery and equipment, have been increasing their participation in international trade. Read the report here.
Regional Integration and the Opportunities offered by Global Value Chains: The Case of the Pacific Alliance
- Author: Sandra Zuluaga
- The objective of this study is to evaluate the participation of the Pacific Alliance (PA) countries in global value chains (GVCs)—with emphasis on Chile, Colombia, and Peru—in order to determine their potential and readiness for more active involvement in the recent reorganization of GVCs. The paper will analyze the trade structure and competitiveness of the PA countries; evaluate the configuration of productive value chains; explore the competitive situation of Chile, Colombia, and Peru; analyze the advances and obstacles in the PA integration process; and present recommendations for public policy and for the private sector. The study will use a combination of qualitative and quantitative tools, and will include a review of relevant literature and secondary information, primary information, and analysis with quantitative tools such as trade structure, competitiveness, and productive chains. The study aims to help PA countries take advantage of the opportunities offered by the GVCs. Read the report here.
Value Chains for the Energy Transition: Opportunities for Latin American Countries in a Changing Landscape
- Authors: Tomás González, Christian Jaramillo
- Latin American countries are aiming to become carbon neutral by 2050 despite the significant role fossil fuels play in the region's macroeconomic stability. Transitioning to a low-emissions energy matrix is challenging due to fiscal revenues, public investment needs, inefficient consumption technologies, underinvestment, and institutional weaknesses. However, the energy transition brings opportunities for investment and innovation, development of critical minerals (such as copper, silver, and lithium), modernization of government, and trade and integration in the global energy transition value chains. The paper proposes a framework to describe the value chains, identify changing links, and suggest strategies for LAC countries to insert themselves in the chains. Read the report here.
LAC Participation in Digital Business Process–Related Services
- Author: Stacey Frederick
- The study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of LAC’s global digital services ecosystem, with a focus on knowledge process services. It intends to analyze LAC countries' participation in digital services and identify potential niche opportunities for them in regional and global chains. It also aims to examine the requirements for participating in established information technology (IT) and business process (BP) services and emerging knowledge-intensive digital services. The research will utilize various data sources, including international organizations, academic research, market reports, consulting agencies, trade data, and digital competitiveness indices to provide a robust analysis in three main sections: defining and mapping digital services value chains, LAC's participation and potential opportunities, and requirements to increase participation by investors and segments. Read the report here.
